Designed to fail: Kerala semi high-speed train runs into hurdles at planning stage itself

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An engineer associated with the Kerala rail project has flagged serious concerns about the “technologically unviable and capital-intensive project”

SRINAND JHA

The Kerala government’s ambitious Rs.56,443-crore plan to connect Thiruvananthapuram to Kasaragod by a 577-km long rail line to operate semi high-speed trains at 200 kmph has run into major procedural, technological and financial hurdles.

While the project has been making a splash of sorts in recent weeks, rail engineers have flagged serious concerns about the “technologically unviable and capital-intensive project”.

Over the last few days, the lead consultant engaged by Systra, the French consultancy firm hired by the Kerala Rail Development Corporation Ltd (KRDCL) to conduct a pre-feasibility study, has flagged serious lapses in project management.

The KRDSCL, a joint venture project between the Ministry of Railways and the Kerala government with an authorised capital of Rs 100 crore, has the mandate to take up rail projects on a cost-sharing basis.

Alok Kumar Verma, a former Indian Railways Service of Engineers (IRSE) officer, has taken to social media to question the announcement and the sanction for the project based on a pre-feasibility report that uses Google Earth and similar satellite data.

He has also questioned the basis for a standalone line, when no such rail line exists in India or anywhere else in the world. Further, with major discrepancies between the first and the second feasibility reports, he asked why the second didn’t make a mention of the first report, which he has authored.

The former IRSE officer said the project is “designed to fail”.

Verma is not the only to question the project. Earlier this month, India’s ‘Metro Man’ E. Sreedharan also described the project as economically unviable that will involve displacement of 20,000 families.

He also questioned the Kerala govt’s claims of having obtained an ‘in-principle’ approval for the project, pointing out that the Railway Board approval was only for the purpose of conducting a survey on the line.

“The way they have handled the project, I do not think that it can take off,” he said.

While the Railway Board had given an ‘in principle’ approval to the Kerala govt to conduct a feasibility study, a senior ministry official confirmed that no sanction had been granted for the project.

“As of now, the financial, technical parameters have not even been discussed. The project proposal needs to go through various stages including scrutiny by the Railway Board and the Niti Aayog,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

Variance in surveys — concerns over costs and traffic projections

So far, Systra has submitted two pre-feasibility studies. The first was submitted on 20 March 2019 while the second came two months later on 15 May.

“While the time gap between two study reports is never less than six months for such projects, it is surprising that the Systra has been able to complete back-to-back surveys within less than two months,” said Alok Kumar Verma.

However, a bigger problem appears to have emerged with the radically different conclusions of the two reports.

In the first report (page 45), it has been recommended that KRDCL should review its decision to build this line as a Standard Gauge line and consider construction on the Broad Gauge — majority of lines in Indian Railways run on the Broad Gauge — to integrate the line with the Indian Railway network.

On page 24, it states that integrating the line with the Indian Railway network at a later stage would be costly.

Without providing an elaborate response to concerns raised over Standard Gauge, the second report merely states that “Standard Gauge had been adopted as a standalone project as per the directions of the KRDCL”.

The first report also states that the cost of building the line — Rs 71,063 crore, including land costs of Rs 15,538 crore and taxes of Rs 6,232 crore — would be five times the cost of constructing a normal Broad Gauge line to operate speeds at 120-140 kmph.

In the second report, however, costs have been slashed to Rs 56,443 crore, including land costs of Rs 13,118 crore and taxes of Rs 5,129 crore.

“Costs have been arbitrarily reduced by taking low unit cost of cuttings and embankments,” Verma told.

Traffic projections are also at immense variance in the two reports. The first one pegs traffic at 37,750 passengers in 2024, going up to 65,875 passengers in 2040. However, the second report projects the passenger traffic at 67,740 in 2024 and at 1,16,681 passengers in 2040.

“Traffic projections have been doubled without an actual survey,” Verma said.

Further, while the first report has expressed doubts over the financial viability because of “very high costs and low traffic”, the 15 May report is silent about this.

What KRDCL says

Asked to explain the discrepancies in the two reports, Systra South India head Praveen Goyal refused to comment, citing “contractual obligations”.

KRDCL managing director Ajith Kumar, however, said there were discrepancies in the two reports because the findings were based on in-house study and satellite data, adding that a traffic study was earlier done by Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA).

He also admitted that radar surveillance, soil investigation or a traffic investigation had not yet been completed.

“A comprehensive Detailed Project Report (DPR) is likely to be submitted next month, when clarity will emerge on actual project estimates and project execution timelines,” Kumar said.

On KRDCL’s preference of the Standard Gauge, Kumar said the rolling stock inventory of the Indian Railways was suitable for trains running at a maximum of 160 kmph.

“We are looking to obtain the latest technology including the ECTS-Level-2 (European emission standards norms) compliant trainsets. Also, it will be difficult to find multilateral agencies to finance the project, if the line is not proposed on the Standard Gauge,” Kumar said.

Courtesy: ThePrint

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